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Discussion Starter #1
Wins over Carolina, New York Rangers and Toronto
---are the Senators for real?

Well, yes, FOR NOW. Enjoy the "powerhouse" Sens
while they play good hockey. They don't have a history of
it, you know.

I will say that they are now playing sound, but let's have
the rest of the season before we judge. Could be a fall is
coming, as the defence hasn't been strong. But, cheer
while you can. It is a time to enjoy. Maybe the St. Louis
Blues can win four in a row and their fans will have a
brief period of elation. Say the same for Toronto.
Savor the thrill of victory while it lasts.:beer
 

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Joined
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Wins over Carolina, New York Rangers and Toronto
---are the Senators for real?

Well, yes, FOR NOW. Enjoy the "powerhouse" Sens
while they play good hockey. They don't have a history of
it, you know.

I will say that they are now playing sound, but let's have
the rest of the season before we judge. Could be a fall is
coming, as the defence hasn't been strong. But, cheer
while you can. It is a time to enjoy. Maybe the St. Louis
Blues can win four in a row and their fans will have a
brief period of elation. Say the same for Toronto.
Savor the thrill of victory while it lasts.:beer
Yeah, and not to be a jerk, but "while it lasts" would be the operative term.

The Sens are 7-5, for a Win% of .583.
The problem is that they've scored 39 GF, and given up 45, which is a Pythagorean Win% of .429, which indicates an expected record of 5-7.

So, right now they're overachieving. They may continue to do it over the course of the season, but odds are they'll settle into a record indicated by their goal differential.

While we're at it, the top and bottom 5 teams in terms Wins Above or Below Expectation, so far this season:

Code:
Wins Above Expectation
----------------------
Rk Team Wins   Exp.Wins   +/-
1. OTT  7      5.1        1.9
2. DAL  8      6.6        1.4
3. TOR  7      5.7        1.3
4. COL  7      6.0        1.0
5. FLA  4      5.2        0.8

Wins Below Expectation
----------------------
Rk Team Wins   Exp.Wins   +/-
1. CBS  2      3.9        -1.9
2. BOS  3      4.4        -1.4
3. MTL  4      5.3        -1.3
4. NYR  3      3.9        -0.9
5. PIT  8      8.6        -0.6
I would stress that we shouldn't read too much into these numbers so early into the season; one blow-out either way can affect these numbers disproportionately since the sample is still so small.

As the season wears on, the numbers will show the truth much more, though.

Daryl
 

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Discussion Starter #4
The end of the winning streak

Overachieving is so wonderful while it lasts. The Senators
finally lost to Boston last night. Well, you know success
from a team with defensive problems can only last so long.

It can't last, you know. So, let's see the Sens do it
again. I can only laugh if they do win again.
 
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