Originally Posted by Grimmas

At least they only gave up a 5th rounder for him. 5th round picks really mean nothing. How many years left on his contract?

Originally Posted by jtkratzer

Sure. Right. They mean nothing...Zetterberg and Datsyuk were both drafted after the 5th round.

Originally Posted by Grimmas

At least they only gave up a 5th rounder for him. 5th round picks really mean nothing. How many years left on his contract?

Originally Posted by hockeyboy14

yes you are correct, but lets be frank, how many 5th rounders become superstars? Its not every year, and its amazing that Detroit has two of them.

Originally Posted by Chris_1968

They do? Tell that to the following successful players drafted in the 5th round or later. You could put a cup contender together with some i listed below. Of course im bored out of mind tonight or i would never post such a post.

Alexander Mogilny
Dmitri Khristich
Valeri Kamensky
Marty McInnis
Bret Hedican
Shawn McEachern
Theoren Fleury
Darren Turcotte
Pavel Bure
Donald Audette
Vladimir Malakhov
Vladimir Konstantinov
Sergei Zubov
Craig Conroy
Robert Lang
Peter Bondra
Mariusz Czerkawski
Brian Savage
Anson Carter
Miroslav Satan
Darcy Tucker
Henrik Zetterberg
Todd Marchant
Andrew Brunette
Pavol Demitra
Kimmo Timonen
Daniel Alfredsson
Steve Sullivan
Richard Zednik
Tomas Holmstrom
Kim Johnsson
Miikka Kiprusoff
Brent Sopel
Pavel Kubina
Luc Robitaille
Tomas Kaberle
Brian Campbell
Ladislav Nagy
Andrei Markov
Ales Kotalik
Pavel Datsyuk
Michael Ryder
John-Michael Liles
Dominic Hasek
Marek Zidlicky
Henrik Lundqvist
Ryan Miller

Originally Posted by hockeyboy14

Not all those players are 5th rounders. Some are later.
Its not just 1 pick either. The odds increase ever so slightly (you'll see the odds in 1 sec)




2003 F Nigel Dawes (New York Rangers) 149th
2002 D James Wisniewski (Chicago) 156th
2001 G Mike Smith (Dallas) 161st
2000 D John-Michael Liles (Colorado) 159th
1999 G Ryan Miller (Buffalo) 138th
1998 Mikael Samuelsson (San Jose) 145th
1998 G Andrew Raycroft (Boston) 135th
1998 D Jaroslav Spacek (Florida) 117th
1997 F Kyle Calder (Chicago) 130th
1997 F Jason Chimera (Edmonton) 121th
1995 G Miikka Kiprusoff (San Jose) 116th

^ That is a much more accurate list. Anyone can say, dont trade your 5th rounder, you never know, but when push comes to shove, these late round gems are very rare.

How rare?

Here are the percentages of players who play more than 50 NHL games...
For all players drafted from 1979-1998

1st round - 81.3%
2nd round - 54.7%
3rd round - 42.5%
4th round - 34.9%
5th round - 23.2%
*6th round - 28.1% (interesting that there is an increase here over the 5th round)
7th round - 16.5%

*The period selected was unique. Soviet bloc players were available for the first time in the middle of that period - many over-age players were selected in the later rounds, skewing the results.In addition, the first 6th round pick in 1979 was the 106th player selected. This year, the 106th player selected was in the middle of the 4th round.

Anyway so the odds of a player playing more than 50 games in the NHL who was picked in the 5th round is 23.2%.

Instead of taking it by round, let's take it by overall selection in ranges. (which is far more accurate).

Picks 1-30: 78.0%
Picks 31-60: 46.8%
Picks 61-90: 37.7%
Picks 91-120: 26.2%
Picks 121-150: 19.1% (5th round)
Picks 151-180: 17.2%
Picks 181-210: 13.7%

It pushed the percentages down by about 5% across the board.

Anyway so there's a 19.1% chance that a player in the 5th round plays atleast 50 percent of his games.

From the 1998-2003 draft how many have played over 50 ( I dont consider players who were drafted in the later rounds)?


1998
Jaroslav Spacek
Pat Leahy (exactly 50)
Jiri Dopita
Tomas Kloucek
Rob Scuderi
Andrew Raycroft
Mikael Samuelsson

Any superstars? Nope.

1999:
Ryan Miller
Niko Dimitrakos

Superstars? I'll concede Miller is an elite goalie

2000:

Petteri Nummelin
Travis Moen
Greg Zanon
John-Michael Liles
Craig Weller

Superstars? No... Star? JML

2001:
Jussi Markkanen
Kyle Wellwood
Cody McCormick
Kevin Bieksa
Mike Smith
Andreas Salomonsson

2002:

Lasse Pirjeta
James Wisniewski
(worth noting only 2 players to play over 2 games)

2003:
Lee Stempniak
Lasse Kukkonen
Brad Richardson

So thats 1.5 superstars...
over 5 yrs.

So 1.5 / 150
= 0.01



Now the chances of your team drafting that player...

0.01/30
= you get the drift.

So too conclude, you may get the late round gem, but if you can get a player who can actually compete at the NHL level, and play more than 50 games for your team, then in reality you've made a good deal because its a very small percentage that a player in the 5th round makes the nhl and plays 50 games, and even a smaller percentage that a player becomes a superstar.

http://www.hockeydb.com/