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It is the year of the high-end defenceman, but it's a dynamic forward with star qualities who is the unanimous pre-season choice to be no. 1 overall in the 2008 NHL entry draft.
In a TSN pre-season survey of 10 NHL team scouts, Sarnia Sting centre Steven Stamkos was ranked no. 1 by each and every one of them.
"He has star written all over him," one scout said. "He is a dynamic player with speed, skill and size. He's No. 1. It's not even close."
If there is a player or players who could challenge Stamkos before the draft next June in Ottawa, it's expected to be a pair of elite-level defenceman.
Drew Doughty of the Guelph Storm is No. 2, a talented all-around blueliner who has excelled for Team Canada in the Super Series.
Alex Pietrangelo of the Niagara Ice Dogs, another d-man touted as the total package, is no. 3.
At this point, based on the survey, there's no disputing Stamkos, Doughty and Pietrangelo as the clear favorites as the top three in that order. Beyond that, there is not much separating the balance of the top ten and beyond.
The TSN survey asked the scouts this simple question: If the 2008 NHL entry draft were being held on Saturday and your GM asked you today for your Top 10 rankings, what would the list look like. For purposes of scoring, a first-place vote was worth 10 points, a second-place vote nine points and so on to a No. 10 vote being worth one point.
Stamkos, with 10 first place votes, scored a perfect 100. Doughty, with eight second-place votes and two third-place votes, was next at 88 points and Pietrangelo, with one second-place vote, seven third-place votes, one fourth-place and one fifth-place vote, close behind at 78.
Here is the balance of the TSN Pre-Season Top 10 for the 2008 NHL entry draft and the scoring in the survey:
4. Michael Del Zotto, defenceman, Oshawa Generals (52 points). Del Zotto is not considered as complete a package as Doughty and Pietrangelo but is strong offensively and has a great shot from the point. Six of the 10 scouts had Del Zotto in the top five. He was no threat to the Top Three but was clearly ahead of the rest of the Top 10 field.
5. Luke Schenn, defenceman, Kelowna Rockets (40 points). Schenn has played well for Team Canada in the Super Series. While Schenn is a consensus top five pick, two of the scouts surveyed didn't have him in their top 10 and one other had him at No. 10.
6. Colin Wilson, forward, Boston University (34 points). Wilson is a product of the U.S. Under-18 program and will be a freshman this season at BU, but he is also a product of the Winnipeg minor hockey system. Wilson is the son of former NHLer and Canadian Olympian Carey Wilson and while he was born in the U.S. and will now wear their colors, the all-around centre grew up in Winnipeg. Wilson was omitted on two ballots but was as high as No. 2 on one scout's list.
7. Colten Teubert, defenceman, Regina Pats (33 points). While the rugged blueliner, who draws favorable comparisons to Adam Foote, is perhaps not as skilled or polished as the high-end defencemen eligible this year, he appears to be a solid top-10 prospect. Three scouts ranked him at No. 6 and one as high as No. 4.
8. Kyle Beach, forward, Everett Silvertips (29 points). No one questions Beach's talent or ability to play the power game but even scouts who ranked him in the top 10 - seven of the 10 did - expressed concern that his lack of discipline and volatile temperament on the ice and a "difficult" personality and attitude off the ice could hurt him if he doesn't make adjustments. Beach was ranked as high as No. 4 on one scout's list.
9. Nikita Filatov, forward, CSKA Moskva (28 points). No one knows quite what to make of Russian prospects in the draft, after Alexei Cherepanov's fall from grace in last year's draft, the lack of a development agreement with the Russian Federation, to say nothing of the Russian disaster in the junior Super Series, so Filatov qualifies as something of a wild card. One scout rated him as high as No. 3 and projected him to have NHL star potential but five others left him off their ballot entirely.
10. Jimmy Hayes, forward, US-U18 (19 points). A member of the U.S. U-18 program, Hayes plays a power-forward type game and was ranked as high as No. 5 on one ballot.
Two players who didn't quite get enough points to crack the Top 10, but who are obviously interchangeable with some who did are Russian forward Kirill Petrov (17 points), who is said to be as industrious as he is talented, and Lethbridge Hurricane forward Zac Boychuk (14 points), who has played in a support role for Team Canada in the Super Series but who will be a main man in Lethbridge. Petrov actually appeared on more ballots than countryman Filatov and the scouts who didn't put him in their top 10 often saw fit to mention him as the 11th or 12th guy, so it should surprise no one if Petrov emerges as the premier Russian prospect in this year's draft.
Other players who received at least one vote in the Top 10 but not enough points to get there include: Brampton Battalion forward Cody Hodgson, who was a minor hockey teammate of both Stamkos and Del Zotto in Markham, Ont.; Peterborough Pete defenceman Zach Bogosian; London Knight forward Phil McRae, the son of former NHLer Basil McRae; Saint John Sea Dog defenceman Yann Sauve; big forward Mikhail Stefanovich of Belarus, who will play for Patrick Roy in Quebec this season after it was initially thought he would be playing the Russian Super League; Russian defenceman Viacheslav Voinov, who has been one of the few brights spots on the Russian Super Series entry; diminutive but dynamic Swedish forward Mattias Tedenby; and Danish forward Mikkel Boedker, who is slated to play for the Kitchener Rangers this season.
One scout said he believes Bogosian of the Petes has a chance to climb into the elite group of defenders with Doughty, Pietrangelo, Del Zotto, Schenn and Tuebert. "He'll be the guy who rockets up the charts, just wait and see," the scout said.
Some players who didn't get Top 10 votes, but were mentioned by scouts as players who might warrant consideration include: Ottawa 67s defenceman Tyler Cuma; Kelowna defenceman Tyler Myers; Vancouver Giant forward James Wright and Swift Current forward Geordie Wudrick.
TSN's Pre-season Top 10 list for the 2008 NHL entry draft, of course, does not include one of the best known and most prolific junior players in the country.
John Tavares of the Oshawa Generals would like nothing more than to be eligible for this year's draft, but he was born five days too late, according to existing rules. So while Tavares' agent Bryan Deasley continues to lobby the NHL in what would appear to be a longshot effort to make Tavares eligible for 2008 instead of 2009, here's a question we put to the scouts after they ranked the 2008 prospects:
"If John Tavares were eligible for the 2008 draft and it was being held on Saturday, where would he rank on the lists they just submitted?"
The strong consensus is at No. 2, just behind Sarnia sniper Steven Stamkos. Tavares accumulated 91 voting points. Stamkos had 100; and Drew Doughty 88.
Three scouts did say they would take Tavares first overall.
"You can't look past 72 goals as a 16 year old," one scout said. "He's only going to get better. He's so focused. He is so determined to score goals and make goals happen that he won't be denied."
But five scouts pegged him at No. 2 and two others ranked him at No. 3. So seven of 10 scouts surveyed, as of today, would take Stamkos over Tavares.
It wouldn't be fair to say scouts are concerned that Tavares' skating, deemed to be average at this point, will prevent him from becoming a big-time NHL scorer, but compared directly to the dynamic skating of Stamkos, the scouts who slotted Tavares at No. 2 did say it has to be a factor.
"His skating is just okay," one scout said. "But he's still a special player. The thing is, Stamkos is dynamic. His upside is huge. He has a lot of Steve Yzerman and Bryan Trottier qualities."
In his first OHL season, as a 16-year-old, Stamkos finished with 42 goals and 92 points in 63 games. Those are great numbers but pale beside the prolific scoring ability of Tavares.
In Tavares first OHL season, as a 15-year-old, he had 45 goals and 77 points in 65 games. Last season, Tavares scored 72 goals and 134 points in 67 games, eclipsing Wayne Gretzky's OHL record for most goals by a 16-year-old.
Worth noting is that even though Stamkos is eligible for this year's draft and Tavares currently is not, they are both the same age, born in the same year, separated by about seven months. Stamkos was born on Feb. 7, 1990. Tavares on Sept. 20, 1990.
"When you talk about the difference between Stamkos and Tavares," one scout said, "you could be talking the difference between Jean Beliveau and Phil Esposito. It certainly looks like they both have what it takes to be great players."
That said, there were two scouts who said, at this moment in time, they would take Stamkos and Doughty ahead of Tavares if Tavares was successful in being included in this year's draft.
"I am sure he's going to get stronger and his skating will improve, but if the draft was on Saturday, I would at this point have to take Stamkos or Doughty ahead of (Tavares) based on what I've seen of them all so far," the scout said. "Could that be different by June of 08? Sure, it could. Everything could be different for a lot of players by then."
And in that vein, for all the talk about how high Tavares would go in the 2008 draft if he were eligible, scouts cautioned Tavares may still be challenged for No. 1 in 2009 by 6-foot-5 Swedish defenceman Viktor Hedman, dubbed by some as the "Swedish Chris Pronger," a big, mobile blueliner who is also drawing favorable comparisons to 2006 No. 1 overall pick Erik Johnson of the St. Louis Blues. Some scouts also believe big defenceman Jared Cowan of the Spokane Chiefs, the first player taken in the WHL bantam draft, could also be a factor in 2009.
As for whether there is any chance of Tavares actually being declared eligible for this year's draft, it doesn't look as though it's likely or imminent. Tavares' agent Deasley has conferred with both the NHL and NHL Players' Association, but the league's position, at this point, is it doesn't see any strong impetus to change the rules or grant any exceptions.
I don't think Filatov will go as high as some people think. Sort of like how Cherepnaov went lower(upper teens) last year after being projected in the top 10.
I don't think Filatov will go as high as some people think. Sort of like how Cherepnaov went lower(upper teens) last year after being projected in the top 10.
Tavares got in the OHL in at 15 (which is under the age for the OHL which is 16+) and hes already almost broken The Great Ones record
Tavares totally. He is a no-brainer, double-blue chip prospect. Stamkos will be good, but not perrenial all-star good like Tavares will be. He has had the upbringing of Spezza, and has more skills...
Tavares totally. He is a no-brainer, double-blue chip prospect. Stamkos will be good, but not perrenial all-star good like Tavares will be. He has had the upbringing of Spezza, and has more skills...
You think Tavares has more skill then stamkos? check your eyes son Stamkos is a far more well rounded player then Tavares and will be a team leader not just the team scorer. Stamkos will do it all put up the goals assists and lead the team.
Stamkos before Tavares
Stamkos before Tavares
check your eyes son Stamkos is a far more well rounded player then Tavares and will be a team leader not just the team scorer. Stamkos will do it all put up the goals assists and lead the team.
GO!
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