The funny thing about Jason Arnott is how his performance during his time with Edmonton has been perceived. The general feeling has been that he had that terrific rookie year and then never again played as well for the Oilers. I believe we need to consider some things in his (well, EVERY player's situation, really) case that make a difference.
-Offense began dropping sharply after his rookie year of 1994. League-wide goals-per game dropped by 0.5 goals the next season and by his final time with the Oilers in 1998, goals per game had dropped by more than one goal, to 5.3.
-During the 1996 and 97 seasons he missed playing time due to more unusual injuries and afflictions. Struck in the face by heavy David Manson shot, appendicitis, etc. Didn't help.
League-Scoring Adjusted Production (LSAP)
LSAP = (((PTS/MIN) / LGPG) * 1000)
Where PTS equals points scored, MIN equals the estimated number of minutes played (the doubtful or curious can read my Ice Time Estimation essay:
http://members.shaw.ca/hbtn/player_study/ice_time.htm
LGPG equals League Goals per Game.
LSAP shows the player's level of production (scoring compared to the amount he played), and compares it to the level of league offense. Higher offense means that there are more points to go round for everybody, the opposite is true when LGPG is lower. The amount of time that a player is on the ice, obviously makes a large difference in trying to determine how good they were at scoring. LSAP is multiplied by 1000 to give us a more readable number than 0.00689, for example.
Arnott's LSAP numbers during Oilers tenure:
1994- 6.89
1995- 7.64
1996- 7.69
1997- 7.43
1998- 2.81
In 1998, Arnott had what was EASILY the worst season of his career, with 33 points in 70 games. Ironically enough, his LSAP with New Jersey that year was lower: 2.34.
So, aside from his last 35 games with the Oilers, Arnott was a more effective scorer than he was in his rookie year.
But... Okay... Some may not like using ice time estimates... I can live with that, it's a free country... Let's take his points per game and compare it to the league scoring level, but not account for ice time.
PRO = ((PPG/LGPG) *100)
Where PPG equals points per game and LGPG (again) equals league goals per game. THis is multiplied by 100, again, for easier viewing.
Arnott's PRO numbers, during Oilers tenure.
1994- 13.41
1995- 14.68
1996- 14.63
1997- 14.67
1998- 9.70
This shows the exact same thing as when ice time was accounted for. Arnott was NOT better in his rookie year than his next years for Edmonton, except for his last 35 games, when he flat-out struggled. Was there any reason for the Oilers to believe that he wouldn't be able to score more points again?
Essentially, one bad year aside, the repeated talk of Arnott failing to live up to his rookie campaign is incorrect.
Daryl
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