Phish4

Draft recap:
I can't add much here because I haven't seen any of these players in action. Some quick points:

-The nine picks seemed to go pretty far through this draft. Colorado did plenty of trading down (at least twice that I can recall), possibly because they had nothing on their plate, possibly because they wanted to fill the new farm team, possibly because they enjoy trading down. After very strong Avs drafts in 05 and 06, this one seems to be somewhat anti-climatic. But again, that's probably because I've never heard of these guys, and I imagine with the muddled quality of the overall class, most teams are probably feeling they walked away with the minimum

-I appreciate that with four picks in the first two rounds, Colorado for the first time in at least five years didn't draft a center (2 defenseman, goalie, wing). My theory is that Colorado's recent drafts have been with the impending knowledge that Sakic has to retire eventually, and management has been throwing as many darts as possible to find a center who can take over for Joe one day. Now that it looks like Stastny (and maybe Hensick) can one day be a franchise center, I assume the Avs are looking for new positions to fill down the road.

-Cann is ugly as hell but ranked as the number #2 goalie in the draft, and on paper he looks very promising. Knowing nothing whatsoever about either player, I came away glad that the Avs drafted him over Sexsmith.

-Carey went to the highschool that my roommate last year went to. I'll yell at him to see if he has any pertinent information, then relay it onwards.

-While I'm happy Americans are finally entering the NHL in roles other than goons and goalies under 15-year contracts, it seems Colorado of late has been neglecting the European theater in favor of US stock. Good call? Bad call? Time will tell...

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Adama0905

I dunno, I kinda, kinda sorta like this draft. I will agree that it lacks talent and any spectacular kids. But it does seem we are looking to improving our defense in the future, as we got a goalie and two defensemen with our first four picks. I am kinda sorta excited about this Cann guy, sounds like he played for a crappy team, but he was starter for the canadian u-18 team, which is always good.

We just have to hope that Stastny is not a one-hit wonder, because if he isn't, we're looking at 90-100 points for him next year, I'm expecting 70-80 out of Joey next year, Hejduk will probably improve on last years performance (I'm so glad he decided to get off his ass and start playing, hooray). We just really need some d. I am not happy with our current defensive squad in the least bit. Sure they played really well down the home stretch, but everyone did. We need at least one more good defensive defenseman, and I'll be happy. Part of the reason our goalies sucked in the beginning and middle of the season last year was the major suckage our d was producing.

Phish4

I feel the need for another rant, so either clear your appointments or go join the party in the Rangers section.

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First of all, Colorado today is stronger than they were yesterday, that's not debateable. It's a no-brainer that Hannan will improve the team's defense and penaltykills while Smyth will add a scoring touch and [insert one of the following; leadership, grit, mullets]. But it's not a secret -- or at least it sure as hell shouldn't be -- that the Avs need a good backup to Budaj more than any other player at any position. And acquiring any other player at any other position, in my opinion, is ultimately re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titantic.

Theodore and Budaj combined to have a save percentage of under .900. Nineteen other teams did better, including Chicago and Edmonton. It gives me little comfort to know that the goalies Colorado will start with next season couldn't outperform the pasta strainers that Boston had in net. Compare other team-based stats. Avs were 3rd in goals (first in the West), 4th in powerplay %, 5th in shots on goal, 13th in shots against. They also had the 3rd fewest penalty minutes. Thus we have; the offense was excellent, the defense was above-average, and goaltending was below-average. So then, which do you spend the most time and money to upgrade?

This team needed a goaltender. They did not get a goaltender.

That's the essence of my biggest beef. If Giguere signs Garon tomorrow, I'll be singing praise from the rooftops as having successfully improved the team on every level. LA hasn't signed Garon (to my knowledge), and neither has any other NHL team, so it's not out of the question; hell, he might be signed for under a million considering how little interest there seems to be. But that's a hypothetical. It hasn't happened, it may not happen, I have no reason to think FG reads my mini-blog in this thread, and thus Colorado might score five goals each game next season and still miss the playoffs.

That's my take on the goaltending scenario. Now I'm going to bitch about Smyth and Hannan's contracts.

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On Smyth; well, this doesn't need much explanation. There are many inarguable facts in this universe and one of them is that Ryan Smyth is not worth more to any team (except maybe the Oilers) than $5 million. While my understanding is that the first season has a bonus clause so that Colorado only pays $4 million against the cap, that's only one season out of five. Five! With a freaking no-trade clause! For $6.25 per! Smyth is now making almost as much as Joe Sakic, one of the best players in the world. Ugh.

On Hannan, it's likely he was the best UFA defenseman after Rafalski, and I'm not unhappy that Colorado managed to get him for $4.5, when he could've gotten as much as $6. But even at $4.5 he makes as much as Liles, Leopold, and Clark combined, and by the end of next season Liles and Clark will be UFAs, and Leopold will be a UFA the season following. Hannan's $4.5 is without question going to be their benchmark for how much they should be making. Or to put it simply, 27 year old Jordan Leopold just signed for $1.5 million when 28 year old Scott Hannan just signed for $4.5 million. How the flaming hell are the Avs management going to keep Leopold when his contract is up?

One of the biggest reasons I've been an avid FG fan is because he does all the little things to win and squeezes pennies to get the best values out of his players. In a cap world, those are two damn good qualities in a GM. Then in one day he spends 20% of the team's cap room on two free agents I doubt he needed, essentially insuring that Colorado won't have cap space for the next five years. Crack addicts on binges have been thriftier.

Quite frankly, I'm not unhappy about either player, to an extent I'm not even that unhappy about either player's contract. I'm just mad as hell because I look at these signings and can't help but think that Francois Giguere has learned absolutely nothing from the Theodore trade.

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Adama0905

Ryan Smyth is a good signing. But as said, we had some of the top goal production in the league. Now I realize that Smyth isn't just there for goal production, he's there for being hard nosed and all, and we do need some of that on the forward side, but still, a forward is the position I can think of the least use for on this team. All I gotta say is that if he doesn't hit 90 points next season, I will call him useless. For 6.25, he better be doing at least that. That's me being kind.

Hannan, I gotta say is a great signing. In my opinion we needed a good defensive defense man more than a goalie, we got Budaj. One of the reasons our goalies were so bad in the beginning of the season was because of our terrible defense. Hannan should bring that up a lot. I can now say that we have a good defensive core. With Liles, Hannan, Clark, and Leopold as our top four, I like our chances.

This all being said, we do still need to figure out our goalies. Buy out Theodore or throw the rights to Svatos in to a trade with him for a fifth round pick, something, anything, I don't care. We need to get that contract off of our team. After that, we need to get a back up to Budaj, as Phish said, Garon would fit that.

And in conclusion, it is obvious that FG is looking to win the Stanley next season, he's not looking to our future. If Stastny produces better next season and isn't a one hit wonder, he will be hard to keep whenever his contract expires, Leopold and Liles will both be hard to keep, Clark is gonna want a bigger contract once his expires, we just have so many players that are up and rising and becoming really good to be coming this close to cap with just two signings.

Phish4

It's 5AM and I'm bored, so I've decided to juggle some statistics and predictions for next season. First, a goal tally, trying to be realistic but not overly conservative, and rounded for simplicity:

Bruno (25) -- Sakic -- (30) -- Wolski (25)
Smyth (30) -- Stastny (25) -- Hejduk (40)
Arnason (20) -- Hlinka (10) -- Laperriere (10)
Guite (5) -- Richardson (10) -- Parker (0)

Hannan (5) -- Leopold (10)
Skrastins (0) -- Clark (10)
Liles (15) -- Sauer (0)

Total is 270, essentially the same amount of offensive output from last season. Some of those numbers are up in the air (I don't know how good Hlinka is, or where Richardson will play, or if Svatos will be with the team; they are thus variables) but I think 270 is a pretty realistic idea of biscuits in baskets for 07/08, and will probably be good enough for close to the best offensive in the West.

Onto defense, which is a very subjective prediction to account for. On defense I'm assuming three things that I consider fairly plausible:

1) Hannan and Leopold will lead the team in ice-time
2) The team won't suffer more than ~50 man-games of injury to the defensemen (Hannan, Sauer, and Skrastins are almost never injured, Leopold by law of averages probably won't be hurt, Liles and Clark might be due)
3) A heavy offensive production (again, probably best in West) will contribute to defensive pressure by the nature of possession outside the defensive zone

Now, considering the above, I conclude three things:

1) Colorado's #1 and #2 defensemen, being new to the team (Leopold's 15 games aren't exactly a complete season), will improve upon last season's defense.
2) The Avs' consistant defensive core with minimal injures will reduce more scoring chances than their polar equivalent.
3) Colorado creating many scoring opportunities for will likewise decrease scoring chances against.

Now, I consider shots against to be the best barometer of defensive skill (it's not perfect, but it is the best statistic that I know of, and if we base a goaltender's skill by the number of shots he stops, if seems fair to base a defense's skill by the number of shots they allow -- just for kicks check out the NHL rankings, you may be surprised at how high or low some teams are). Last season Colorado allowed slightly less than 2400 shots (I'll round up for simplicity). Given that the Avs now have Hannan and Leopold, and most likely won't have as many IR victims, I think it's about fair to say that number drops by about 100 shots. That might sound ambitious because it would put them as the fifth or sixth defense in the league; and while I don't think they'll be that good -- but maybe on the low end of top ten -- on paper it makes sense.

Onto goaltending. I think Budaj will improve his save percentage to about .910 and will play roughly 60 games, while Theodore continues a .890 (ugh) for the remaining 22. It's possible that Budaj will break out Emery-style and Theodore might show signs of improvement, but I think the fairest prediction is one of moderate improvement.

THUS WE HAVE

3.3 goals per game
28 shots against per game
Budaj stopping 91% of those shots over 60 games, Theodore stopping 89% of them over 22 games

Crunch the numbers and Colorado is sitting at 270 goals for and about 217 goals against, a dropoff of 35 goals against from last season. The team last season with comparable numbers was Nashville with 110 points, placing 4th in the conference. While this is seriously comparing apples and oranges, by the strokes of the calculator it doesn't seem unreasonable that the Avs improve at least by five points (to 100 points), and perhaps even up to 110 points.

There are obviously limitations (Colorado can't make the playoffs if Sakic or Budaj have a season-ending injury), but at the same time there are upsides (what if Wolski starts showing chemistry with Bruno and Sakic/what if Liles and Sauer improve upon their flashes of brilliance/what if Theodore decides he wants a second Hart upon his mantle).

All told...next season should be interesting...food for thot...

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kermit

That was a good read. I have to disagree with you on Hejduk leading the team in Scoring. I think it might be Sakic. Although Hejduk is good, he may me traded from what I heard... I've heard there are rumours. But that's okay. I think that We have a good chance now.

I think Theodore will improve from last year simply because he watns to prove people wrong. But, I have been wrong before, I think he will improve by quite a bit.

Adama0905

If Hejduk is not injured or is not traded, he will be the team leader in scoring. He simply is the wizz at scoring once he gets going like he did last season around mid way. He's a pure goal scorer.

Let's do a breakdown player by player here. Just for kicks. Since I'm really bored. This will be a long read.

Offense

#8 - Wojtek Wolski:
A solid player, kind of a disappointment after the promise he showed in the beginning of the season. He's our best shot at first line RW as of the roster we hold right now. I think next year he will decide he wants in on some of this glory that Stastny is getting, and prove that he's not just "the only guy we can put in as first line RW so as not to screw up chem".
Last year - 22 G 28 A 50 P
07 - 08 Prediction - 25 G 40 A 65 P

#12 - Brad Richardson:
I think this guy, once he decides to step up from the random spastic extraordinary play and plays a solid game season long, can produce upwards of 40 points. Next year will most likely not be that year. He is a reliable player, I like him, we better not trade him.
Last year - 14 G 8 A 22 P
07 - 08 Prediction - 15 G 15 A 30 P

#14 - Ian Laperriere:
The assistant captain, and rightly so. This guy is a naturally born leader, charismatic, and just a great guy. He's willing to get his nose dirty, protect his team, and every once in a while he produces points. Joel throws him on the ice whenever we need to bring up the energy, and usually Ian gets the job done.
Last year - 8 G 21 A 29 P
07 - 08 Prediction - 5 G 15 A 20 P

#15 - Andrew Brunette:
There is amazing chemistry between that top line center and that top line left wing. And we're seeing points come from it. This is a player that we stole basically. He had only broken the 60 point barrier once before we attained him, and now, he has turned in to a star on this team. And I believe he is getting better. We should see amazing things from this player for the next two or three years. A great asset.
Last year - 27 G 56 A 83 P
07 - 08 Prediction - 30 G 60 A 90 P

#19 - Joe Sakic:
The Captain. The Avalanche franchise. This man is everything to this team. He is the greatest clutch player ever, he always comes through for us. At 37, he still rocked for our team, grabbing an amazing 100 points for the season. He is a Hockey Hall of Fame must have. But one thing is for sure, he is not getting any younger, and we only have one or two more years with him. If we by some chance win the Cup next year, he will retire. And I will be glad that he does, because no one can escape the age bug, not even the great Joe Sakic. Some may be able to avoid it, as he as, but eventually it will get you. I would rather see Joe hoist that cup one last time, and retire on top, than to see him play for another five years, and slowly diminishing. But for now, he will lead us to victory next year.
Last year - 36 G 64 A 100 P
07 - 08 Prediction - 30 G 60 A 90 P

#23 - Milan Hejduk:
We all thought he may be over, don't deny it, we all did. I know I for sure did. But then last year he came back. He regained his scoring touch with this new Stastny kid. I do hope we keep him this off season, because we need those goals he seems to be able to put in. He is one of the most important assets on this team.
Last year - 35 G 35 A 70 P
07 - 08 Prediction - 45 G 30 A 75 P

#26 - Paul Stastny:
No doubt about it, this guy is the future of the franchise, no matter how gawky he looks. He will be taking over as number one center in the next two or three years, and he will be a star player in this league.
Last year - 28 G 50 A 78 P
07 - 08 Prediction - 30 G 50 A 80 P

#28 - Ben Guite:
I don't really know much about this guy, except for the fact that he brings a lot of energy to the game, and he's a good player for the team.
Last year - 3 G 8 A 11 P
07 - 08 Prediction - 5 G 10 A 15 P

#29 - Scott Parker:
Rough tough kinda guy, I was kinda surprised when we got him back. He's not crap when it comes to points, but he can bring some physical play. Looks stupid.
Last year - 1 G 1 A 2 P
07 - 08 Prediction - 1 G 3 A 4 P

#39 - Tyler Arnason:
Another stupid looking guy. He was pretty good in the beginning of the season, but then kinda declined. So I suppose we have another half season player, but I don't mind having him. His points I believe will probably rise this next season.
Last year - 16 G 33 A 49 P
07 - 08 Prediction - 20 G 35 A 55 P

#40 - Marek Svatos:
This is the forward that has the least stable position on our team. I don't personally think he'll get signed. His point production certainly for some reason declined last season, idk why, but it was sad. I wish him luck wherever he goes next year, whether it's on our team or another. I hope he gets his scoring touch back.
Last year - 15 G 15 A 30 P
07 - 08 Prediction - 20 G 20 A 40 P

#94 - Ryan Smyth:
A good pick up. An unnecessary pick up, but who can ever say that picking up Ryan Smyth is a bad pick up? Ok, maybe if we'd paid him round eight million, I would say **** you FG! But 6 mil, not too bad, seeing as we still have plenty of cap apparently. If he plays a full season, I see a good 40 goals or so for Ryan. Besides, after Konowalchuk left, we really needed a guy that drives to the net. Smyth is...THE net guy.

*Other*
#22 - Cody McCormick:
I really like this guy. I dunno why he doesn't have a more solid place on the roster. He plays a great brand of energy hockey and he's more speedy than other rough tough guys. He's a good player.
Last year - 0G 1A 1P (6 games played)
07 - 08 Prediction - (Should he get a complete season) 5G 10A 15P

Defense

#3 - Karlis Skrastins:
Perhaps 05-06 got to this guy's head last season. But it seemed like he wasn't as willing to sacrifice the body, and made more mistakes than usual. It seemed while his fellow 05-06 breakout player Clark was getting even better, Skrastins was getting worse. Hopefully he does better next season.
Last season - 0G 11A 11P
07 - 08 Prediction - 2G 10A 12P

#4 - John Michael Liles:
Seems like this guy concentrates more on his offensive play than his defensive play sometimes. While that's not all that bad in the new NHL, it's still not the greatest. He's still young, and needs to work on his defensive and physical game more before he becomes a great defenseman.
Last season - 14G 30A 44P
07 - 08 Prediction - 15G 30A 45P

#5 - Brett Clark:
This guy is a great player. Ever since his breakout season, he's become great. Hopefully it doesn't get to his head, but so far it seems it hasn't. He's got the offense, and the defense. He makes smart plays all over the ice, and is one of our most valuable players.
Last season - 10G 29A 39P
07-08 Prediction - 10G 30A 40P

#22 - Scott Hannan:
A steal. He's the steal of the off season in my eyes. While everyone was amazed that we picked up Smyth, I think Hannan was the better pick up. He's mostly a defensive defenseman, he can lay out the body, and still gathers semi-good points. This is the piece we were missing. A top 2 defenseman next season most likely.
Last season - 4G 20A 24P
07-08 Prediction - 5G 25A 30P

#34 - Kurt Sauer:
He was an important part in last seasons streak in the end, but it's still Kurt Sauer. We've seen how he usually plays, and it's not the greatest. I don't think he will keep a solid position on the roster for very long.
Last season - 0G 6A 6P
07-08 Prediction - 1G 5A 6P

#44 - Jordan Leopold:
Haven't seen the guy play much really. Don't really know how he'll work out for this team. All I know is he's mostly an offensive defenseman, so another Liles but with a better defensive game most likely. I look forward to seeing how he plays out next season.
Last season - 2G 3A 5P (15 games played)
07-08 Prediction - 15G 30A 45P

*Other*

#6 - Jeff Finger:
The guy that will take Sauer's spot. He had a good game last year, and he'll most likely get a pretty solid roster spot next season.
Last season - 1G 4A 5P
07-08 Prediction - 5G 10A 15P

Goalies

#31 - Peter Budaj:
He's up and coming, I think he will be a great goalie for us. When he figures out that he needs to play amazing in not only high pressure situations, but in low pressure ones as well, he will be an amazing goalie. He gives us a chance to win a lot of games we should not be winning.
Last season - 2.68 GAA .905 SV%
07-08 Prediction - 2.15 GAA .915 SV%

#60 - Jose Theodore:
Washed up. That's all anyone can say, including me. But, more impossible miracles have happened, so why can't this one? He's at the bottom of anyone's list now, so he can't get any worse.
Last season - 3.26 GAA .891 SV%
07-08 Prediction - 2.89 GAA .888 SV%

Told you, long read. I predict that we'll be 5th seed or higher, with this roster. We're deep in all positions but goalie, and we're mediocre in that respect, so with good D, we have it.

An amazing offense will pull us through, and we have that right now. Here's to all hopes for next season being great.

Adama0905

Oh, looks like we're giving Svatos another chance. He's under a one year contract. 1.2 million.

And we are still 6 mil under the cap, I could really see FG bringing in another star player. Let's see what he does.

kermit

Well, I will get back to you once I finish reading your nice long post.

But I think Hejduk should be given a shot at the top line. With Brunette-Sakic. That could be good. But maybe not.

I'm not sure, he might be the teams scoring leader, but I still think Sakic will lead the team in points.

Adama0905

Well yeah, Sakic will most likely lead us in points, maybe Smyth, maybe Stastny, I dunno. But I really want to keep Hejduk and Stastny together. I say put Smyth on the Stastny line, or if he can play right wing, put him with Sakic. But I also want to keep Brunette and Sakic together.